Food insecurity: Numbers show severity of grocery price hikes
Statistical data helps illustrate how grocery prices have shifted, especially in the years following the pandemic. Among the most visible aspects of post-pandemic inflation has been the rise in what the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index refers to as “food at home” — in other words, groceries.
Why groceries stand out
Groceries are distinctive for two main reasons. First, they are a fundamental human need. Unless a person relies entirely on restaurants or institutional meals, they purchase and consume groceries. Second, this category allows various levels of substitution — consumers can choose budget alternatives like store brands over premium ones, or switch from organic to conventional items.
“Groceries are a necessity, but numerous choices exist at many price points.”
This flexibility differentiates groceries from other essential expenses such as housing or utilities, which offer far fewer substitution possibilities.
What government data reveals
Government reports provide detailed insights into how grocery costs evolve. Besides CPI measurements, the Department of Agriculture tracks four monthly food cost levels, representing quartiles of household grocery spending.
Trends in the past decade
Data from the last ten years highlights a clear trend: grocery prices stayed fairly stable between 2015 and 2020, surged sharply in 2021, and climbed again in 2022. Once inflation adjustments are applied, however, prices have mostly leveled off since 2023. Over the decade, the lowest spending quartile saw grocery prices rise by 55.8% before accounting for inflation.
Author’s summary: Grocery costs surged after the pandemic but have stabilized when adjusted for inflation, though low-cost shoppers still face steep increases over the past decade.