Decomposing Life Expectancy Changes in Spain During and After COVID-19
Background
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a substantial reduction in life expectancy at birth in 2020 across Western Europe. By 2023, these levels had generally been restored. Despite being one of the nations most impacted by the pandemic, Spain maintained the highest life expectancy in the European Union.
The study aims to analyze the changes in life expectancy in Spain between 2019 and 2023 by separating the influence of specific age groups and causes of death, and to compare these results with the pre-pandemic period from 2010 to 2019.
Methods
Data on life expectancy and mortality by age group and major causes of death were sourced from the Spanish National Institute for Statistics (INE) for the years 2010, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023.
Researchers applied the Arriaga decomposition method to estimate age-specific contributions to life expectancy changes, and proportionally linked each contribution to major causes of death.
Results
- Age groups over 20 years showed negative contributions to life expectancy in 2020, followed by mostly positive impacts in the subsequent years.
- The groups most affected in 2020 turned into positive contributors over the full 2019–2023 period.
- Individuals under 45 years continued to show negative effects on life expectancy.
- Infectious diseases were the main cause of the sharp decline in 2020, reducing overall life expectancy by 1.33 years — 1.43 years in men and 1.16 years in women.
"Infectious diseases were the main contributor to the sharp drop in life expectancy in 2020, accounting for −1.33 years in the total population, with a more severe impact in men (−1.43 years) than in women (−1.16 years)."
Summary
The study highlights how Spain’s life expectancy sharply declined in 2020 due to infectious diseases but gradually recovered, mainly among older adults, by 2023.
Author’s summary: Spain’s life expectancy fell sharply in 2020 but showed significant recovery by 2023, driven by improvements in older age groups and reduced pandemic impact.