Numerical Weather Prediction at 60: A Journey of Innovation at the Met Office
Sixty years ago, the Met Office began a transformative journey that revolutionized weather forecasting both in the United Kingdom and globally. The introduction of numerical weather prediction (NWP) in 1965 marked a pivotal moment, triggering significant scientific and technological advances and steadily improving forecast precision. As the 60th anniversary of NWP approaches, we look back on the remarkable progress and anticipate a promising future.
From Early Experiments to Operational Forecasts
The roots of NWP at the Met Office trace back to the early 1950s, when trailblazing scientists like Fred H. Hinds, guided by John S. Sawyer, performed initial experimental forecasts using the EDSAC computer at Cambridge. Although constrained by the era's technology, these early trials set the foundation for future development.
In 1959, the Ferranti Mercury computer, nicknamed ‘Meteor,’ was installed in Dunstable, marking a critical milestone as the first computer dedicated to NWP research at the Met Office.
The Breakthrough of 1965
The true leap forward came with the introduction of the English Electric KDF9 computer, called ‘Comet,’ at Bracknell. On November 2, 1965, the Met Office produced its first operational computer-based forecast. This event attracted extensive media coverage and heralded a new chapter in weather prediction.
“On 2 November 1965, the Met Office produced its first operational computer forecast, a moment that received widespread media attention and signalled the start of a new era in weather prediction.”
Advancing Science and Technology
The decades following 1965 saw rapid advancements in both scientific understanding and computing capabilities, continuously enhancing the accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts worldwide.
Author's summary: Over 60 years, the Met Office's commitment to numerical weather prediction has driven groundbreaking scientific and technological progress, shaping modern forecasting as we know it.