Three key near-term actions could bend the warming curve; bringing projected warming below 2˚C

At COP 28 in Dubai, 2023, as part of the first Global Stocktake (GST1) discussion, the world’s governments negotiated and agreed a clear set of 2030 energy and methane goals that aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C. These included tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements, and cutting methane emissions. We show for the first time the huge climate benefits if governments were to implement what they have negotiated and agreed for these three critical energy and methane goals. We evaluate the global benefits of governments taking concerted action to deliver on the goals by 2030 and 2035, both in terms of emission trajectories and warming implications. These actions would bring projected 21st century warming below 2°C. The outlook improves significantly (by about 0.9°C), almost as much as the entire 1°C improvement in the global warming outlook seen over the ten years since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, and would be a major step towards keeping the 1.5° limit in sight. Unlike any previous improvements in targets and policies under the Paris Agreement, the implementation of these measures would quickly begin to slow the rate of warming from about 0.25° per decade at present, rather than under current policies which would see a slight acceleration by 2030.

Climate Action Tracker — 2025-11-19

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